Indyk. Israeli public believes that they have no Arab partner w whom they can

Indyk. Israeli public believes that they have no Arab partner w whom they can negotiate a peace. Syria reinforces notion that Israel should not take risk when regimes are fragile. DR. Sinai is flashpoint w Egypt. Admin has had a very meaning? Palestinian issue is not key. Wasn’t art of Islamic awakening, but it is not insignificant. Demographics compel 2 state solution. Too much distrust between Israel and Palestinians. Steps that each could take to move towards each other (e.g. Israel offers money to any settler who leaves West bank. Iran TJP summary. Discussions suggest that it is more likely than not that there will be a military attack on Iran in next 18 months. That is going to be very ugly. Interestingly, polls suggest population and IR academics would not support such an attack. Both Pawlenty — representing Romney, and Podesta — representing Obama, presented a logic that — if followed, would lead to war with Iran. Logic sitting in Aspen is fine, pulling the trigger 1s another matter. Graham Allison. Two terrible choices, we should look for a third way. Steve Hadley. Iraq was not a war of choice, it was a war of last resort when all other options failed. Aug, 2013 we will be out of options on Iran. We do need to think hard about our options and the sequencing of those options. Think in terms of a f family of options and the methods of moving through them. 1. Stop the clock, buy time. Iran has rejected this. 2. Put more on the table. More for more. 3. Secure the big agreement that ends dispute. Could the US agree to allowing Iran to have a limited amount of LEU — say 3-5% enriched unranium. 4. Ifall of the above fails - what to do? US should try to establish a status quo w redlines where, if Iran tries to break out, we have time to attack. We would also want to understand Iran’s redlines. 5. Long term sanctions, pressure and isolation to try for regime change. 6. Limited military strike. 7. Big strike Bill Perry: a military strike by US or Israel will have serious, unknowable and unintended consequences. Therefore attack is very unattractive. Iran is close to a 1] HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025807