peace deal are clear enough, too. But in both cases, neither side trusts the
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peace deal are clear enough, too. But in both cases, neither side trusts the
other, and each demands that the other go first. Instead, nobody goes
anywhere.
U.S. officials have very good reason to be wary of Iran's bona fides. In
2009, they reached a deal with Iranian negotiators to send the stockpile of
highly enriched uranium out of the country -- only to see the ayatollah
repudiate it. As Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert with the Council on Foreign
Relations puts it, "Khamenei has created a politics where it's hard for him
to compromise." But so has the United States. Anyone who watched
Chuck Hagel's confirmation hearing knows that it is an article of faith in
Congress -- and pretty much a bipartisan one -- that Iran is a faithless,
illegitimate terrorist state that will be deterred from building a bomb only
by the threat of massive attack. Had Hagel been foolish enough to suggest
that the United States offer to reduce sanctions in exchange for Iranian
concessions, the White House would have had to find a new candidate for
defense secretary.
It's the U.S. Congress that arguably holds the high cards, though the White
House put them in its hands. The most potent sanctions are legislated, and
have been written in such a way that they will be very hard to unwind.
Obama can waive them for up to six months. But the ayatollah is not about
to make irreversible decisions in exchange for six months of relief.
The White House is thus stuck between Tehran and Capitol Hill. And it
can't live long with the current stalemate. After all, Obama has said that
"containment" is not an option. He is hoping that the combination of
economic pain and fear of military action will bring Tehran to its senses. If
it doesn't, the president has said that he is prepared to use force. Perhaps
he feels that just as spurned engagement served as the predicate for tough
sanctions, so would failed negotiations lay the predicate for a broadly
supported strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran left us no choice, he
might say, as the bombers fly.
That would constitute a diplomatic triumph ... if a strike against Iran's
nuclear facilities is a good idea. If in fact it's a dreadful prospect -- worse,
perhaps, even than containment -- then it would constitute a failure that
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