Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] European Equity Strategy 2017 year ahead - Refining the reflation rotation Key takeaways ¢ 2017 - Reflation, Reversal, Rotation, Relief or Revolt. EPS to turn +ve but pol...
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Volatility in Numbers (16-Jun-17) Table 11: Statistics on implied, realised, skew and term structure for 3-month and 12-month vols (developed markets) 3-month {2-month S&P500 ESTX50 FTSE DAX NKY HSI KOSPI S&P500 ESTX50 FTSE DAX NKY HSI KOSPI Implied 9.8% 13.4% 10.0% 12.6% 13.8...
Notable trends and dislocations (US) The Fed turns more hawkish, though vol remains subdued Last week, unsurprisingly the Fed opted to hike benchmark rates another 25bps. However, the market was more focused on the FOMC’s unexpectedly hawkish message, which indicated that it is...
Table 5: Scenario analysis of China’s 2017 FX reserves (yellow denotes lower reserves/ blue higher) Trade balance, USDbn 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 300 2,885 2,935 2,985 3,035 3,085 3,135 350 2,835 2,885 2,935 2,985 3,035 3,085 3,135 400 2,185 2,835 2,885 2,935 2,985 3...
ae — a return to positive EPS growth in 201 7% EPS growth in 2017 as global growth improves and Resources EPS recovers We think the earnings backdrop will be supportive in 2017 with a return to positive EPS growth in Europe for the first time since 2014 and with downside to cons...
Conference tone bullish into 2017 We recently hosted over 90 public and private companies and 700 attendees at our Future of Financials conference, where investor attendance was up an impressive 66% YoY. The tone from management and investors was uniformly bullish, with more gen...
rc errti—“(iCssssi‘CSCSOCO LUDO Banks Takeaways With our conference coming a week following a historic US presidential election that helped boost bank stocks by 12%, bank management teams were generally optimistic with regards to the economic outlook heading into 2017. Greater f...
Chart 15: Buying an XLF 1m ATM call financed by selling a QQQ 1m call is Last week, we highlighted that investors who want to rotate out tel attractive way for investors to rotate out of Growth and into of Growth strategies into Value strategies should take advantage of elevated...
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Chart 13: The 2016 election move implied by the VIX term structure is, in our estimate’, approx. 1.4%... ---0--- Interpolated Oct future (level where Sep/Oct/Nov Fly = 0) —2e— Expected Oct future based on median level of ~1M/2M/3M fly em=@=—= \//X futures (adjusted for holidays)...
Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Top 10 US Ideas Quarterly Q1 Top 10 Ideas Strategy Top 10 US Ideas — 1Q17 The backdrop for risk assets has changed dramatically over the past year. As Michael Hartnett po...
Notable trends and dislocations (US) Major US equity indices soar to all-time highs as the low vol regime persists Friday marked the end of the second full week following the political turmoil on Wed, 17-May. Since then, volatility has once again collapsed (10d realized is at 4...
…lomacy. But somewhere in his second year, Obama seemed to buy into a different paradigm. Like his predecessors, he said frankly that the U.S. could not want Arab–Israeli peace more than the parties themselves. Obama’s ambivalence was perfectly captured on April 13, 2010, when he...
Chart 13: The -2.5% drop in the NDX on 17-May was a six standard deviation (60) event relative to trailing realized volatility and the fourth worst risk-adjusted daily return since 1985 Chart 14: The 60 sell-off in the NDX on 17-May has helped drive short- dated Tech implied vol...