20 other. Wars are notorious for yielding unintended and unexpected consequences; for reasons explained below, a war against Iran is even harder than usual to bound analytically. Complexity, Uncertainty and War Our first consideration in analyzing the likely course of war with...
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…ut where it started. Hamilton’s rule, applied to diploids like us where closest relatedness r absent inbreeding is %, forbids investment where fitness gained (benefit) is less than twice fitness given up (cost). I see no escape from the inference that fitness would double with...
…Epstein. Mar-a-Lago, the commander-in-chief’s private-club-turned-southern-White-House in Palm Beach, was the backdrop for Epstein’s introduction to one of his dozens of teenage victims, according to court records. In a short-lived lawsuit that Trump decried as “categorically f...
…ntal work to see whether we could figure out the differences between those who found it easy to do this work, and those for whom it was difficult. That work suggests that there is a psychological capacity that makes the process of knowing this kind of God easier, though its absen...
… a panel to discuss the state and outlook of M&A and regulation. Given the results of the US election and the potential for easing of regulations, the panel discussed a timely topic on the mind of investors. Our panelists included Rodgin Cohen, Senior Chairman of Sullivan & Cromw...
49 violations,”®° three former Haitian officials involved in the same scheme were convicted of money laundering,” Mail and Wire Fraud The mail and wire fraud statutes may also apply. In 2006, for example, a wholly owned foreign subsidiary of a US. issuer pleaded guilty to bot...
…ed his Fifth Amendment privilege rather than answer any substantive questions. Epstein has also helped secure attorneys for his other household staff who assisted in the process of recruiting the minor girls, who in turn also asserted their Fifth Amendment rights rather than expl...
Prologue | 5 terms of the 1997 transfer of sovereignty from Great Britain, China is responsible for Hong Kong’s defense and foreign policy, includ- ing intelligence services. He then proceeded to Russia, which has no extradition treaty with the United States. Russia granted him...
…t say it. If I had said it, though, would that have been helpful to her? What could I have done to be a better resource for her? Especially given that I was such close friends with him? I was young(er), but that's no excuse. Then again, what am I excusing? I did nothing. But I s...
…y to would bear no relationship whatsoever to the -- the allegations here. He was criminally prosecuted, to my memory, for having stolen material and turned it over to Bradley Edwards is my recollection. And as the result of that clearly had a motive to lie. And the same with Mr...
21 Enemy disinformation, as well as simple error, can also set us on the wrong track. The enemy acts not just on the battlefield but also through an ability to influence our understanding of the situation by means of denial and deception. In this and other ways complexity reinfo...
2D disputed city of Kirkuk. The Iraqi army was moving troops to the area. Shooting could have broken out were it not for the presence of the U.S. army in the middle. Peshmerga leaders won't talk directly to their Iraqi counterparts--they need a trusted third party in the room....
…demn the genocide until after the killing was completed and at least 1.8 million people lay dead. The General Assembly, for instance, did not mention Cambodia in a single resolution until November 1979—nearly a year after the genocide’s end. Even then the resolution was framed in...
… several participants. In some rape cases, a similar Rashomon perspective is sometimes at work. In the Mike Tyson case, for example, it is possible (though unlikely in my view) that Desiree Washington did not intend to consent to sex but that Mike Tyson reasonably believed—based...
3. Pricing Before Product— Plan Distribution First Is your pricing scalable? Many companies will sell direct-to-consumer by necessity in early stages, only to realize that their margins can’t accommodate resellers and distributors when they come knocking. If you have a 40% profi...