as they are highly correlated with USD and carry
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isolating global and idiosyncratic sources of risks
exhibit negative skewness and fat tails. Even
for the last two years and the years 2013-2014
LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in
we could stop the analysis here and choose those
and focusing on those trades where ex-ante high carry is consistent
we choose our best carry trades across EM and DM.
coupled with a favorable external position and
the currency remains overvalued and highly
and gives the ruble the best risk-adjusted carry
and the currencies are not expensive relative to
despite showing some detachment from global factors and some positive inflows
and we do not expect the central bank to intervene
are very cheap versus OIS and Libor swap rates.