long positions remain crowded (Chart 9) and
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after the surprise victories of the Brexit camp and Trump
and inflation indexed bonds generally have outperformed.
long USDJPY and short basket of LatAm long bonds. Here
rates and stocks. One transmission channel is
as we use a dynamic forecasting regression with lags of consumer and business
and the CLI in turn anticipates growth by three months.
there is a global component to inflation and if the US is driving that
high correlation between breakeven and BRL
with the latest flows pointing to more EUR downside and GBP
to capture both the referendum in Italy and the French
Hanjin shipping troubles and Samsung related issues
perhaps tighter monetary policy and some protectionist’s measures.
and the news flow suggests a referendum by April/May. In a
and the credit remains a solid BB+ fundamentally